Sportsbook.ag releases new Alabama numbers
Brian doesn’t think the oddsmakers are giving Alabama quite enough respect in the spreads for its potential matchups in the CFP.
Published on Wednesday, 11/7/18, at 2:58 p.m. Eastern.
Sportsbook.ag has released fresh numbers for the nation’s top-ranked team in the College Football Rankings, Alabama.
As we’ve been harping on all season in our weekly SEC Notebooks that are filed to VegasInsider.com on Fridays, Nick Saban’s team has been an incredible money maker. The Tide is is now 9-0 for gamblers backing it in first-half bets and 7-1-1 in the first quarter.
Before all of its team totals fell ‘under’ in the first quarter, first half and the game in last week’s 29-0 win at LSU, they were 20-2 against the spread for the year on those plays for its team totals to go ‘over.’ Now they’re 20-5.
So the five-play sequence of plays on Alabama in the first quarter and first half, in addition to its team totals ‘over’ in the 1Q, 1H and the game, went into last week with a 36-3-1 spread record. That ledger now sits at 38-6-1. Still, not bad at all!
The only first-quarter bet that lost came when Missouri’s Drew Lock threw a TD pass for a backdoor cover with two seconds remaining in the stanza. The push came when ‘Bama led Texas A&M 14-7 as a seven-point favorite heading into the second quarter.
Anyway, ‘Bama is a 24-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Mississippi St. this week. Sportsbook.ag has released some new numbers for the Tide.
For instance, Alabama is the -280 ‘chalk’ to win the CFP and Tua Tagovailoa is the -1000 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
Also, the Crimson Tide is favored by nine points over Clemson, 21 points vs. Notre Dame and -14.5 vs. Michigan in potential CFP matchups. If these games don’t materialize, the bets become no-action (or the same as a push).
I don’t believe those lines are rich enough. I made Alabama a 21-point favorite vs. LSU last week, and that number spent most of the week in the 14-15 range.
My lines would look like this:
Alabama -14 at a -125 price vs. Clemson (+105 odds on +14 bets)
Alabama -18 vs. Michigan
Alabama -27 vs. Notre Dame
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
–I went 3-0 in MACtion plays last Tuesday and Wednesday, and then hit an easy winner with Buffalo last night. I’ve got two MACtion plays ready for tonight
–South Carolina’s top RB Rico Dowdle and one of its best linebackers, Bryson Allen-Williams, are ‘questionable’ Saturday at Florida. At last look, the Gators were favored by six or 6.5 points.
–Vandy is 13-7 ATS in its past 20 games as a double-digit underdog on Derek Mason’s watch. The Commodores are 17-point underdogs Saturday at Missouri.
–Stanford TE Kaden Smith has 44 receptions for 601 yards and two TDs for the season. The third-year sophomore is turning it up the past two weeks, catching 17 balls for 219 yards and two TDs. Smith and the Cardinal host Oregon St. this week. Smith’s 25-yard reception on a fourth-and-10 play was crucial in Stanford’s 15-14 come-from-behind win in Corvallis last season.
–Temple RB Ryquell Armstead is ‘questionable’ at Houston due to an ankle injury. Armstead has run for 768 yards and six TDs this season.
–Boise St. LB Riley Whimpey will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL sustained in last week’s 21-16 home win over BYU. Whimpey was leading the Broncos in tackles with 55. He also had two sacks, one TFL, two QB hurries and one PBU.
–Ohio St. is mired in a 0-5 ATS slide.
–The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip for Notre Dame in its past six games. However, the ‘under’ is 4-1 for the Fighting Irish at home. They host FSU on Saturday and the total opened at 55 and was down to 54.5 as of Tuesday. The ‘over’ is also on a 5-1 run for the Seminoles, who were 18-point underdogs. They’ve gone 1-3 both SU and ATS in four previous road assignments. This game will kick at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.
–Two more QBs are now out for the season: Utah’s Tyler Huntley and Western Michigan’s Jon Wassink. One thought to be done for the year but now slated to start Saturday at La. Tech: Rice’s Shawn Stankavage.
