Thunder ‘unders’ constantly cashing (again) for Cronin’s Cincy squad
Cincinnati will travel to Pauley Pavilion today for a 3:30 p.m. Eastern tip at UCLA. As of early this afternoon, most betting shops had the Bearcats installed as four-point road favorites.
We aren’t interested in the side, though. We’re all about the total instead.
That would be 148.5 points and I was
stunned thrilled to see this number.
We’ll be playing Cincinnati games ‘under’ every single time we get a total in the 140s, although I don’t see that happening many more times. This is the second-highest total the Bearcats have seen this season.
The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in Cincy’s last seven games. The Bearcats are ranked sixth in the nation in FG-percentage defense, forcing opponents to shoot at a 36.1 percent clip. They are ninth in the country in scoring ‘D,’ holding foes to an average of 60.6 PPG.
The ‘under’ has been a big winner in UC games for many years. In fact, the ‘under’ has hit at a 51-20 clip in the Bearcats’ last 71 non-conference games. Furthermore, the ‘under’ has cashed at a 47-16-1 rate in UC’s past 64 road assignments.
Mick Cronin’s teams mirror each other year after year. He’s a defensive-minded coach that demands that his players defend for 40 minutes. UC is tenacious on the glass and rarely gives up second-chance points.
The ‘under’ is on a 3-2 run in UCLA’s last five games, but that should be 4-1 if not for its game last week against Michigan going to overtime.
At VegasInsider.com, we offer one selection out of a handicapper’s package to be dubbed as a “guaranteed play.” The premise behind this is for the customer to NOT have to pay for the pick if it loses. The catch is that if the game wins, it sells at a higher price point ($39.95 instead of the $29.95 that an entire daily package costs).
Anyway, I only point this out because I’ve hit five straight guaranteed plays on VI. And I’m still pissed the streak isn’t six because I took a terrible beat on Nevada as a 5.5-point underdog at Texas Tech. The Wolfpack led for most of the game and lost by six in overtime.
Since then, my five guaranteed winners have beaten the number by 70 combined points. Those winners include Arizona St.’s 82-70 win over St. John’s as a 4.5-point favorite, Arkansas’ 95-79 win over Minnesota as a 4.5-point ‘chalk,’ ASU’s 92-82 win at Kansas as an 11.5-point ‘dog, UC’s 65-50 win over MSU with an ‘under’ play (138) that cashed with 23 points to spare.
Finally, I beat the number by 6.5 points in Western Ky.’s 81-80 loss at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point ‘dog.
I’m all about a thunder ‘under’ again today for UC at UCLA as my guarantee on VI. My other picks for today’s card can be found here. To be clear, I don’t offer guarantees here on my website (and I’ve giving today’s away anyhow).
You can also get my postseason college football picks here, as the bowl season kicks off today! Don’t miss out on any of my Games Galore podcasts, either. G-Galore 28 will be out this Tuesday (12/19).
UC-UCLA will be televised on CBS.