Week 10 Primer
Published on Friday, 11/6/15, at 11:44 a.m. Eastern.
Updated on Saturday, 11/7/15, at 10:18 a.m. Eastern..
–I joined Matt Youmans and Dave Cokin on ESPN 1100 Thursday to talk college football. You can check out the clip here. My interview starts at the 28:00 minute mark.
—Youmans provided his picks and breakdown of LSU-Bama with a few quotes from me in Friday’s RJ.
–The last seven times when Arkansas has been an underdog of nine points or more, it has compiled a 6-1 spread record. The Hogs are double-digit underdogs at Ole Miss in Saturday’s CBS game at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
–The ‘under’ had cashed at an 8-0 clip in Missouri games this season. However, the ‘over’ hit for the first time Thursday night in Mississippi St.’s 31-13 win over the Tigers. The 44 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 41-point total. Mizzou’s effort in the second half was atrocious and embarrassing. Dan Mullen has done a helluva job with his team this year that still has a chance to have a special season. Remember, the Bulldogs get Alabama in Starkville next week. They’ll have extra rest coming off the Thursday game and ‘Bama will obviously be in letdown mode following Saturday’s crucial showdown vs. LSU.
–My picks finally caught fire last week. I went 5-1 in Week 9 of the college football season and then cashed easy winners with No. Illinois and Bowling Green in MACtion on Tuesday and Wednesday. So I was 7-1 going into Thursday with Buffalo -2 at Kent St. The Bulls scored first to make it 6-0, but they missed the extra point that would eventually doom the pick. Later in the first half, Kent St. got on the board with a 69-yard pick-six. The Flashes would lead 17-6 until Buffalo scored to make it 17-12 early in the fourth quarter. Once again, the conversion failed. This time it was a two-point try in an attempt to cut the deficit to three. Trailing 17-12, Buffalo scored with 58 ticks remaining to go ahead 18-17. For a third time, the Bulls couldn’t add one (or two) and failed on another two-point conversion attempt. The line actually dipped to pick ’em or even Buffalo +1 in the hour or two leading up to kickoff, so some gamblers backing the Bulls cashed. Others like me were left to suffer a bad beat. Three TDs resulted in 18 points and a pick-six gave the Flashes seven. It’s been that kind of year for this guy. Here are my plays for Saturday. UPDATE: Things usually even out and they did last night, as I got a fortunate cover with Temple getting a pick-six very late in a 60-40 win at SMU as a 13-point road fave.
–Since 2010, Oregon has been a single-digit home favorite just twice. In both instances, the Ducks mauled Stanford and easily took the cash. They are favored by four Saturday vs. Cal. The Bears have lost three in a row with QB Jared Goff throwing as many interceptions (seven) as TDs (seven).
–La. Tech QB Jeff Driskel continues to thrive under Skip Holtz. The Florida transfer has connected on 61.6 percent of his throws for 2,729 yards with a 19/4 TD-INT ratio. Driskel also has 243 rushing yards and five TDs. The Bulldogs are 29.5-point home favorites Saturday vs. North Texas.
–During Mike Gundy’s 11-year tenure, Oklahoma St. has posted a 6-9-2 spread record in 17 games as a home underdog. The Cowboys are catching five points vs. TCU in Stillwater.
–I’ve backed Washington St. for winners three weeks in a row, yet for some reason I’m hesitant this weekend. The Cougars are 2.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Arizona St.
–Another game I’ve been reluctant to pull the trigger on is Indiana +7 at home vs. undefeated Iowa. I won’t be surprised if Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard lead the Hoosiers to an upset victory.
–Penn St. junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg hasn’t been intercepted since a Sept. 19 win over Rutgers. Dating back to Week 4, Hackenberg has 12 touchdown passes without an interception. The Nittany Lions have won seven of their last eight games and will hit the road to face Northwestern this Saturday at noon Eastern. Their losses this year have come at Temple and at Ohio St. The Buckeyes and Owls have just one loss between them.
–FSU hasn’t been a double-digit underdog since getting smashed at Florida in Tim Tebow’s final home game at The Swamp in 2009. The Seminoles, who are 11-point ‘dogs Saturday at Clemson, haven’t been road ‘dogs since 2011. During Jimbo Fisher’s six-year tenure, FSU is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a road puppy.
–Florida faces Vanderbilt at noon Eastern on ESPN. The Gators are favored by 20.5 points with a total of 36.5. A victory will send UF to the Ga. Dome in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game for the first time since 2009 (Tebow’s senior season). The ‘under’ is 7-0-1 in Vandy games this year. This is the second-lowest total the Commodores have seen this year.
–The updated odds to win the CFP at Sportsbook.ag:
Ohio St. +250 (risk $100 to win $250)
Notre Dame 10/1
Michigan St. 12/1
Oklahoma St. 25/1
Ole Miss 100/1
Texas A&M 200/1
North Carolina 250/1
Mississippi St. 1,000/1