UFC Fight Night 61 Picks

UFC on FOX 2: Evans v Davis

Michael Johnson is a +130 underdog vs. Edson Barboza in tonight’s co-main event for UFC FN 61.

Published on Sunday, 2/22/15, at 7:12 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Monday, 2//23/15, at 5:28 p.m. Eastern.

Results= Mir 1 unit (+190): WINNER +1.9 units.
Johnson 2 units (+130): WINNER +2.6 units.
Johnson-Barboza ‘under’ 2.5 (-105): LOSER -1.05 units
Martins 0.5 units (+400): WINNER, +2.0 units
Martins-Khabilov ‘under’ 2.5 rounds 1 unit (+135): LOSER -1.0 unit

Total: 3-2 record, +4.45 units

UFC Fight Night 61 is underway and the underdogs are already barking. Matt Dwyer just scored a spectacular first-round knockout on a superman punch to beat William Macario as a +300 underdog. As Jon Anik noted, Dwyer was a road underdog too, fighting the Brazilian in enemy territory.

I’ve got 5 plays going for tonight’s main card.

I’ll go with Frank Mir as a +190 underdog (for 1 unit at 5Dimes) over Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva. I got a better number (+240) earlier in the week. I think it’s a toss-up fight. Both guys have had outstanding careers, but they haven’t tasted many victories lately. I’ll call for Mir to end a four-fight losing streak and beat Silva by submission in the second round. The total is 1.5 and I liked the ‘over’ when the price was flat (-115 either way) earlier in the week. However, most books now have a -160 price  for the ‘over,’ and that’s too expensive for me.

I’ll also take Michael Johnson to stop Edson Barboza with a second-round KO (for 2 units) for a +130 underdog return. This should be a fun kickboxing battle contested on the feet. I think Johnson catches the Brazilian. Both guys have big-time finishing potential, so I’ll also go with ‘under’ 2.5 rounds at a -105 price (for 1 unit). I think this is going to be Fight of the Night, too.

Two more picks for Adriano Martins-Rustam Khabilov: I like Martins for one-half unit (0.5) for a monster +400 payout (5Dimes). Also, give me ‘under’ 2.5 for 1 unit (+135). 

Best of luck and enjoy the show!

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