Heat heavily favored in Game 3 at Milwaukee

Published on Thursday, 4/25/13, at 10:35 a.m. Eastern.

By Brian Edwards

**Miami at Milwaukee**

–Miami (68-16 straight up, 47-37 against the spread) took a 2-0 series advantage with Tuesday’s 98-86 win over Milwaukee as a 14-point home favorite. The Heat led by only three points going into the fourth quarter, but a 30-14 run saw it take a 98-79 lead with 2:15 remaining. However, the Bucks hooked up their backers with a backdoor cover by scoring the last seven points of the game, including an essential Mike Dunleavy 3-pointer with 33 ticks left.

–Dwyane Wade was the catalyst in Game 2, scoring a team-high 21 points to go with seven rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals. LeBron James added 19 points, eight rebounds and six assists, while Chris ‘Birdman’ Andersen came off the bench and provided a key spark with 10 points and six boards.

–Erik Spoelstra’s squad won Game 1 by a 110-87 count as a 13.5-point home favorite. The 197 combined points resulted in a push for wagers on the total. James led the way with 27 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists as Miami outscored Milwaukee by 16 points in the second half.

–Milwaukee guard Brandon Jennings scored 26 points in Game 1, but he made just 3-of-15 shots in Game 2 and finished with merely eight points. In a similar fashion, Monta Ellis had 22 points in the series opener, but he was held to just seven points in Game 2.

–As of early Wednesday night, most betting shops had the Heat installed as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 194.5. Gamblers can take the Bucks to win outright for a +300 return (risk $100 to win $300). Miami is favored by four in first-half wagers and the total is 97.5.

–Milwaukee (38-46 SU, 38-46 ATS) has struggled at home, going 21-20 SU and 16-25 ATS.

–Miami has won 10 consecutive games while compiling an 8-2 spread record.

–Sportsbook.ag is currently showing the Heat as the -220 ‘chalk’ to win the NBA title (risk $220 to win $100).

–The ‘over’ is 42-40-2 overall for Miami, but the ‘under’ is 23-18 in its 41 road assignments.

–The ‘under’ is 42-39-3 overall for the Bucks, but the ‘over’ is 22-18-1 in their home games.

–The ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

–Tip-off on TNT is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

–For more thoughts/numbers on tonight’s card, check out this link at VegasInsider.com.

–Indiana took a commanding 2-0 series lead over Atlanta with last night’s 113-98 win as a seven-point home favorite. The 211 combined points soared ‘over’ the 187-point total. The ‘over’ is now 5-1 in six head-to-head meetings between these clubs this season. Paul George was the catalyst with 27 points, eight rebounds, four steals and three assists.

–The Pacers have lost 11 consecutive games against the Hawks at Philips Arena.

–Atlanta power forward Josh Smith got his second foul barely two minutes into the first quarter and got his fourth foul with just over a minute played in the third stanza. And that’s too bad for the Hawks because Smith played extremely well last night. In only 20 minutes of playing time, Smith finished with 16 points, six rebounds and three assists while making 7-of-10 shots from the field.

–With the series knotted at 1-1, Golden St. has been installed as a one-point home favorite Saturday night vs. Denver. Most books have the updated series price as Denver -260 (risk $260 to win $100), while the Warriors are available at +220 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $220).

–With a 2-0 advantage in the best-of-seven series that now shifts to Staples Center, San Antonio opened as a three-point favorite over the Lakers for Friday’s Game 3 on ESPN.

–Going into tonight’s Game 3, the updated series price for the Bulls-Nets is Chicago -120 with Brooklyn at even money (+100).

–Trailing the Knicks 0-2, most books have the Celtics as three-point home favorites for Game 3 back in Beantown on Friday night.

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